Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Two Economic Forest Trees on the Loess Plateau, China

The Loess Plateau is one of the most fragile ecosystems in world. In order to increase biodiversity area, develop sustainable agriculture and income local people, we simulated potential geographic distribution two economic forest trees (Malus pumila Mill Prunus armeniaca L.) present future under climate scenarios, using maximum entropy model. this study, importance contributions environmental variables, areas suitable habitats, changes habitat suitability, direction distance range shifts, change ratios for area land use proportions, were measured. According our results, bioclimatic topographic variables soil play a significant role defining M. P. armeniaca. min temperature coldest month (bio6) was important variable trees. second factors were, respectively, elevation precipitation driest quarter (bio17). At time above moderately habitats (AMSH) 8.7967 × 104 km2 11.4631 effect Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-85 more dramatic than that SSP1-26. Between now 2090s (SSP 5-85), AMSH expected decrease 7.5957 km2, while will 34.6465 km2. suitability decreased dramatically south southeast regions Plateau, increased middle west resulted shift 78.61~190.63 km northwest, shifted northwest by 64.77~139.85 km. This study provides information policymaking regarding Plateau.